The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Frequently Asked Questions
Marine Le Pen leads at 46%, followed by Édouard Philippe at 19% and David Lisnard at 12%. Odds reflect live trading across 45 outcomes.
Marine Le Pen, at 46% implied probability.
The market resolves on April 19, 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See the resolution rules above for official verification criteria and designated reporting sources.
$154.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 45 outcomes.
Yes. Polymarket trades are settled on-chain on Polygon, so all positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on PolyAlertHub to inspect wallets, smart money positions, and recent whale activity in this market.
Prediction markets aggregate distributed information and financial incentives, historically providing more accurate probabilistic forecasts than expert panels or unweighted surveys. Confidence grows as trading volume and participant diversity increase.
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