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Review historical performance stats for Polymarket smart money alerts. See win rates, average returns, resolved alert outcomes, and tracking methodology.
Signal Win Rate
7828 Wins · 6016 Losses (excluding pending)
Average ROI
Average return across resolved alerts
Total Alert Triggers
707 Pending outcome resolution
Avg Conviction Score
Consensus score of co-traders
Conviction Performance Analysis
HIGH Conviction
758 AlertsWin Rate
25.2%
Avg ROI
+21.1%
MEDIUM Conviction
13357 AlertsWin Rate
58.9%
Avg ROI
+6.4%
LOW Conviction
436 AlertsWin Rate
42.1%
Avg ROI
-0.4%
Category Name
Time Window
Type
Conviction Level
Alert triggered in the last 10 minutes are not displayed in the logs or performance stats.
| Market / Outcome | Trader | Entry Price | Conviction | ROI | Result | Triggered At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dota 2: LEGION vs OG - Game 1 Winner OG (Esports) | GooGooGaga1 | $0.775 | MEDIUM (47) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 10:40 AM |
| illenial | $0.552 | MEDIUM (50) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 10:13 AM | |
| gatekeeperofgozer | $0.950 | MEDIUM (58) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 10:00 AM | |
| jsahdjklahsjkdbkaslJDkasjh | $0.784 | MEDIUM (45) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 09:57 AM | |
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Over (Soccer) | darkumbreon88 | $0.650 | MEDIUM (47) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 09:45 AM |
| crckr | $0.611 | MEDIUM (51) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 09:04 AM | |
| jsahdjklahsjkdbkaslJDkasjh | $0.946 | MEDIUM (45) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:51 AM | |
Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Over (Soccer) | darkumbreon88 | $0.720 | MEDIUM (47) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:45 AM |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes (Politics) | lpgb | $0.267 | MEDIUM (64) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:45 AM |
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes (Politics) | lpgb | $0.131 | MEDIUM (64) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:45 AM |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes (Politics) | lpgb | $0.267 | MEDIUM (64) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:45 AM |
| firegold | $0.880 | MEDIUM (49) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 08:11 AM | |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner MOUZ (Esports) | lolzik | $0.547 | MEDIUM (57) | +82.7% | WIN | 11/3/2026 07:36 AM |
| lpgb | $0.160 | MEDIUM (64) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 07:29 AM | |
| lpgb | $0.110 | MEDIUM (64) | +78.9% | WIN | 11/3/2026 07:09 AM | |
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on November 4? No (Daily Temperature) | Bokich | $0.770 | MEDIUM (49) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 07:04 AM |
| lpgb | $0.037 | MEDIUM (64) | +303.1% | WIN | 11/3/2026 07:04 AM | |
Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on November 3? Yes (Daily Temperature) | 0xfafade | $0.872 | MEDIUM (49) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 06:55 AM |
| lpgb | $0.220 | MEDIUM (64) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 06:53 AM | |
| 0x0f8462D43c688909e3AF0DebB58276C10D437fbe-1787017825190 | $0.648 | MEDIUM (53) | - | PENDING | 11/3/2026 06:48 AM |
Showing 1–20 of 14551 results
The PolyAlertHub Smart Money Performance Dashboard aggregates and publicly audits every signal generated by verified smart money wallets on Polymarket. By maintaining an immutable ledger of signal triggers, resolution timestamps, and payout values, we provide complete transparency into real-world predictive accuracy across prediction markets.
Aggregate Signal Win Rate
Historical signals achieve an aggregate win rate of over 55% across more than 12,000 resolved prediction market events.
Average Signal ROI
Resolved alerts maintain an average return on investment of over 7.7% per trade, demonstrating consistent profitability above cash hurdle rates.
Comprehensive Tracking
Over 13,000 total alert events recorded, including winning contracts, losing positions, and currently active pending outcomes.
Transparency in quantitative tracking requires a rigorous, published methodology. PolyAlertHub calculates smart money stats according to strict programmatic rules:
What Counts as an Alert or Signal
A signal is logged whenever a qualifying smart money wallet—possessing an established polyScore, proven win rate, and minimum trading history—executes a new position in a supported market within their verified optimal entry price range.
Resolved vs. Pending Signals
Markets with undetermined outcomes remain categorized as "Pending" and are strictly excluded from historical win rate and ROI calculations until final settlement is confirmed on-chain by the Polymarket oracle.
Win Rate Formula
Win Rate = Wins / (Wins + Losses) × 100%. A contract resolving at $1.00 is counted as a Win; a contract resolving at $0.00 is counted as a Loss. Pending events do not artificially inflate the denominator.
Return on Investment (ROI) Formula
ROI is calculated based on the signal trigger entry price versus the settlement payout ($1.00 or $0.00), normalized per unit of invested capital to measure true capital efficiency.
Sample Size & Date Range
Statistics span over 13,000 alert events across multi-month rolling windows, providing robust statistical significance rather than small-sample cherry-picked results.
Exclusions & Data Hygiene
Canceled orders, unexecuted limit bids, zero-liquidity test markets, and voided/refunded prediction contracts are automatically filtered out from performance metrics.
Signal accuracy varies across different Polymarket sectors depending on liquidity depth, information symmetry, and market duration:
Politics & Elections
High-liquidity presidential, congressional, and geopolitical markets exhibit steady win rates and wide participation, with signals often anticipating polling inflection points.
Crypto Milestone Contracts
Price threshold markets (e.g. Bitcoin target prices, ETF approvals) reward quantitative traders who model volatility bands and order book microstructures.
Sports & Culture
Fast-settling sports series and awards markets demonstrate high variance but lucrative asymmetric returns when smart money capitalizes on mispriced underdog odds.
Performance statistics provide valuable historical context but should not be interpreted as financial guarantees:
Execution Timing & Slippage: Alert stats reflect the price at the moment of signal trigger. Market impact and price slippage may result in different entry execution for followers.
Portfolio Sizing: Win rate alone does not prevent drawdowns if position sizing is disproportionate. Proper capital allocation is essential.
Independent Verification: Cross-reference alerts with our Smart Money Leaderboard and Traders Leaderboard to review each trader's full on-chain history before acting.